US investments continue higher despite China

For the past few years, many bearish global and US market analysts have claimed that a recession or sharp decline on Chinese exchanges will create a detrimental domino effect throughout the free market world. Well, guess what, China's Shanghai index dropped some 8+%. Despite the rapid drop-off, resembling the DJIA in 1929, US stocks failed to coincide, edging slightly higher overall, including some of the very stocks with huge interest on the exchange such as PetroChina and CNOOC.

Unfortunately for these bears, they refuse to realize that globalization has helped reduce risk and dependence in any one country or region. Negating fundamental economics, though, baffles me.

As of 10:58PM ET, the Shanghai Index was down another 5%. We will see if the US exchanges can continue the momentum and further our dominance as the supreme nation of wealth. Also interesting, the Hang Seng seems to be higher still, some .37%. This means that worries among Chinese investors have yet to spread to outside investors, including a signifcant portion from the US.

When will Carter and Greenspan just shutup?

I don't know what it is with former famous political leaders, but they seem to be having a problem keeping their mouths closed. Just a few days ago, former President Jimmy Carter went off as saying "the current administration is the worst in history". Later, Carter claimed he was only referring to the Bush Administration's foreign policy.

But, like Greenspan, what good did these comments really do for the country? Confidence is already near all-time lows, set when guess who was President-Carter himself. A vast majority of Americans in both parties know how poorly Bush has done in respect to foreign policy, so why does the former maligned leader feel the need to state the obvious? Considering his track record, Carter has no room to criticize or talk.

Today, former FED Chairman Greenspan decided to tell the world that China will have a big sell-off at some point. Well, no kidding! Anyone who follows economics and investing understands that China is due for a correction at some point. Did Greenspan really find it necessary to state the obvious as well?

However, I fail to see where this "big" correction will come from. If you take into account the P/E ratios over the projected five-year earnings growth rates in China, the stocks seem more appealing then those in the United States. Yet, Greenspan seems to ignore key numbers such as this all too often. To be critical of China, when you have been linked directly to many of the problems the US Economy currently faces, takes one arrogant and senile former economist and politician.

Carter and Greenspan need to go play a round of 18 and accept the fact that they failed during their tenures.

Protectionism is a double-edged sword

Sen. Hilary Clinton continues to lead the protectionist rampage on the political front, she has yet to provide any hints as to her solutions to the various problems that are certain to arise should she win and enact her regulations. Protectionism has both positive and negative effects, the later of which Clinton ignores.

I doubt anyone questions the concern over the amount of outsourcing that has taken place since the early 1990s. Something needs to be done to revitalize the US economy, that isn't debatable. The methods for achieving the end means is where politicians and economists seem to differ.

Clinton tends to suggest that Protectionism will help keep jobs inside of US borders, lower the trade deficit and ultimately act beneficial to the overall economic well-being. She doesn't seem to realize that the trade deficit has no net affect on the United States. Entities and people trade, not countries. She should be more focused on U.S. GDP Growth rates because various factors influence trade, including tariffs, tax rates in respective countries and currency conversion rates.

If you look at Hilary's plan, implementing policies to force companies and Americans to buy home-grown products will certainly result in significant spikes in inflation. She doesn't seem to have any grasp of this concept. If strong tariffs or other protective measures are enacted, those goods that will be then produced by workers in America will most definitely be higher in price due to the wage and benefits difference.

Another key consequence on protectionism is a stronger US Dollar. Although some argue that would be beneficial for the United States and her citizens, this would only hold true when trading or converting currency or wealth with other countries. An inflated currency has proven to be part of the problem with outsourcing because a higher USD makes foreign imports cost less and become more attractive. This is a central factor in the massive import problem the US faces. Should the USD fall relative to the Asian currencies, which it still has yet to do, demand for US exports will rise dramatically.

The double edge sword comes into affect if the US Dollar were to fall too quickly, lowering the value of personal wealth and ultimately creating inflation simultaneously. By any means, the situation is complex and fragile, something Sen. Clinton needs to realize soon.

China learning well from U.S. Economists

As one of the fastest growing economies in the world and one of the largest, China could easily be arrogant, unresponsive and even disrepectful to the U.S., a former Cold War nemesis. That does not seem to be the case however, considering the trend of decisions made by the Chinese version of the FED, with counsel from U.S. bankers and economists.

The Wall Street Journal reported today that China lifted bank reserves in an attempt to help control growth. Although growth in double digits seems very appealing to most investors, the Chinese Central Bank and U.S. economists realize it may actually pose a huge recession threat down the road. With a lesson learned from the U.S. housing bubble, created by Alan Greenspan's flawed monetary policy, China is attempting to prepare itself and provide a soft-landing to the world's second largest economy (GDP using PPP).

Though the graph suggests no recession problems, you can be sure that growth will be tough to sustain at such a high rate. If China can curb its growth now at 8-9%, it will be able to sustain it for a much longer period of time with less volatility, such as the graph suggests. However, if they continue growing by double digits, the threat of a bubble burst is likely, one that could ultimately ruin the economy or set Chinese progress back severeal years.